Process 2006-2010: horror statistics
Calderon war against drug trafficking has caused tens of thousands of deaths (the federal government recognizes more than 28 000 and some independent counts put the figure at just over 25 thousand), more than occurred during the Independence or the U.S. invasion of Mexico, a process experts say statistics criminal, say there is no absolutely reliable numbers about
and also note that what can not be measured can not be known or fight effectively ...
The tens of thousands of dead left by the war launched by Felipe Calderón on drugs than the number of missing some conflicts in Mexican history: the Independence, with 23 000 deaths, the war against the Together, with the same amount, the Reform, the balance was 8 thousand, or the dirty war of the seventies that left 436 dead, according to generally accepted figures.
The trouble, analysts say, is that each year is double the previous death toll of the war on drugs: in 2006 there were two casualties for every 100 thousand inhabitants and now is 8.4. Further added that Calderon's strategy at the end of his term will be murdered 14 people per 100 thousand inhabitants. A very high figure by international standards.
specialist Arturo Arango Durán criminal statistics in this weekly says: "The current drug war has resulted highly lethal. Victims and their cost is very high. But worst of all, it's a hopeless war, it strengthens organized crime the more the attacks. By reducing the drug supply causes prices to rise and cartels to obtain higher profits.
"So, like it or not, the state strengthens organized crime and becomes the great regulator of the drug market. He got into a vicious cycle ends. Moreover, the war is fueling a dispute between a cartel and another for control of the streets.
"All this has a multiplier effect of violence and therefore deaths. This is precisely what makes the number of deceased double from year to year. In absolute terms, strictly speaking, loss of human lives and we are above those caused by most other civil wars that Mexico has experienced since its independence. "
Analyst in the same subject, Juan Pablo Arango explains:" We must take that our civil wars were usually caused by ideological disputes among large sectors of the population in the current change is mainly the result of action taken by the federal government to fight drug cartels. "
Process At the request of both experts made a detailed statistical analysis on the increase deaths that caused the current conflict, and a comparison with past wars in Mexico. Different counts
note that in the absence of reliable statistics from the federal government (which officially has realized more than 28 000 casualties in this war), several citizens and media organizations make their own counts, to develop the analysis specialists departed Reforma newspaper data: 25 000 549 deaths from 2006 to this month, but warn that the figure could be lower than actual.
In 2006-when Calderon took office-drug deaths were 2 000 119, an amount that represents two deaths per 100 000 inhabitants. In 2007, the number rose slightly, rose to 2 000 275, and the proportion was 2.1 deaths per 100 000 inhabitants.
But in 2008 were 5 000 207. The number more than doubled over the previous year. With this we were 4.8 deaths per 100 000 inhabitants. A year later there was another significant increase: 6 000 587 deaths and the rate rose to 6 per 100 000 inhabitants.
This year, in mid-October and had counted 361 dead 9000: 8.4 per 100 thousand inhabitants.
addition, on Tuesday 26, the Defense Ministry reported that from December 2006 to August 2010 the war against the cartels has left 191 dead soldiers.
Arturo Arango summarizes: "The sharp increase began to occur from 2007, so it really is the base year. From then to date the number has quadrupled. For every 100 people we had in 2007 now have 400. It's a terrible matazón! ".
- What are your projections for the last year of this administration?
"If things remain the same, the statistical trends tell us that next year the figure is 11 deaths per 100 000 inhabitants and by 2012 will go down 14. The six-year period ending with 14 deaths per 100 000 inhabitants. A huge increase. Juan Pablo Arango
emphasizes: "This will only happen if government continues with its strategy to combat it, if the Army and police forces remain under the same vein. The death rate would drop if applicable, for example, a containment strategy or negotiations with organized crime. "
Arturo Arango and his son Juan Pablo are specialists in public security policies. For a decade they have worked together and co-authored several books on the subject, as police statistics, crime mapping and intelligence police.
now collaborating with a working group of the National Public Security System (NPSS) that collects information and conducts statistical evaluations. Have also worked with the Government of the Federal District in the same area and have recently been specialized in evaluating statistics on homicides.
Arturo Arango was a researcher at the Citizen's Institute for Studies on Insecurity, who heads the capital exómbudsman Luis de la Barreda. States: "To have the proper dimension of the human cost implies a war is not enough to just count their dead, but also called secondary victims such as orphans, widows, the injured ...."
- Can you have an estimate of the number of secondary victims of this war on drugs?
- Sure! The calculation statistic is 1.4 for every death orphans. So now we have about 32 thousand orphans in the country. And in the best case scenario there will be about three injured died, here we are talking about 75 000 injuries requiring medical attention.
- What about widows?
-can be 18 000 or 20 000 ... many of them are women who have no income and are integrated into the labor market.
"The war is generating a lot of pressure on the health system, education, labor ... its multiplier effect is impressive because it causes additional conflict that the State is unable to attend."
- A war just as bloody and deadly our previous wars?
"Yes, but only in absolute terms in the number of deaths, loss of lives.
In that sense, experts in statistics show that deaths in the fight against drug trafficking are more than 23 000 left by the war of Independence, which lasted 11 years.
are also above the 2 000 200 of the Texas War, from 1835 to 1836, of the 23 thousand U.S. invasion, which lasted two years, from 8 000 in four years of war and Reform of 436 of the "dirty war." Or say the conflict in Chiapas in 1994, which yielded just over 100 dead.
But are below the 63 thousand who were in the French intervention in six years or 90 thousand of the Cristero war, from 1926 to 1929.
In relative numbers, however, analysts warn that making a statistical comparison in relative terms, Calderon is less lethal than most previous wars.
"Not to be biased we must adjust the number of deaths to two major variables: the population that had Mexico in each of these civil wars and the period of time that occurred each," they explain.
Based on this point that the War of Independence had 370 deaths per 100 thousand inhabitants, and at that time the national population hardly exceeded 6 million.
Texas War caused 28 deaths per 100 thousand inhabitants. The conflict against the United States dropped 328, the War of Reform 97, the French intervention 768, 543 Cristero war, while the dirty war and the conflict in Chiapas do not reach a death per 100 thousand inhabitants.
Clarify that there are zones and states, such as Chihuahua, where the number of deaths in relative terms is very similar to some of these armed conflicts.
indicate that the best-known massacres of the past, such as the October 2, 1968, whose calculation of deaths ranged between 150 and 350 - or the Thursday of Corpus Christi in 1971-is estimated 60 - are "isolated incidents" so they were thrown from their comparative calculations.
"But the drug war is also leaving killings, like that of the 72 migrants in Tamaulipas.
"Yes. But at this point that 72 deaths and not make a difference in statistical terms. Is a minimum. And it is not to disparage this event, "says Arturo Arango. Ensures
drug killings do not qualify as genocide, because this figure involves the extermination of ethnic or ideological enemy. However, some human rights organizations, including the Center Human Rights Fray Francisco de Vitoria, and ensure that there is a genocide against the youth and children of Ciudad Juárez, so ask the intervention of the UN and the Inter-American Court of Human Rights.
added that the government could not count the death toll that is leaving the drug war: "So far the government has no mechanism that allows you to count well. For example, the NPSS reports that from 2006 to date, 63 000 have committed manslaughter. It does not say how many relate to the fight against organized crime. Their numbers and INEGI have differences of up to 30%. It's a total mess.
"The registration of deaths has to start to rise since arrives at the scene of the crime. Must guard the area immediately and raise what we call the HPI (Police Report counterparts.) Things must be done methodically. But these protocols are not met in Mexico.
"It has been extreme, as happened in Tabasco during the administration of Roberto Madrazo. At that time the state government registered zero kidnappings, but in their jails had the highest number of kidnappers in the country. Where did abductors if they were not kidnapping? Such situations continue to occur.
"So in the absence of reliable data, civil society organizations and some media, such as newspapers Goals and Reform, have their own counts. There are radio programs that have 'ejecutómetros' on that record daily the number of executed. "
- What is keeping track of the dead?
"A problem that can not be measured can not be read, much less fight. It is as if a doctor is that you have a fever only see your face. No. You need a thermometer to determine body temperature and after diagnosis gives you the medicine. The accounts of the victims used to make a diagnosis and take the right steps. False data are inadequate measures "answers Arturo Arango.
- That it is going to the government in its fight against drug trafficking?
"Yes. It is as if piloting a plane flying from a storm without instruments to control and not knowing where it goes. Completely lost.
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